Five Security Flaws in IPv6

[Iljitsch van Beijnum]

On 13-mei-2007, at 20:12, Leo Vegoda wrote:

>> My personal prediction: unless unprecedented changes happen,

> The emptying of the pool is unprecedented in this context. It's  
> likely to have an impact.

Obviously. However, there is both no precedent for more than 200  
million addresses per year since the introduction of CIDR, so burning  
through the remaining 1235 million addresses before 2010 can only  
happen when something REALLY big happens, such as a herd of eliphants  
deciding to jump into the pool.

In order to arrive at a date later than 2019 we need to go down in  
yearly addresses, not just one year or two, but year after year. And  
then reclaim address space and probably do one or more additional  
things, again, stuff that would be a completely new direction so  
predicting it based on the past is impossible.

>> we'll be out of v4 somewhere in the second decade of the century,  
>> with 2012 or 2013 being the most likely year for that to happen.

> Does that mean the IANA pool, the RIR pool, the ISP/enterprise pool  
> or something else?

When I count the available address space, I count everything in the 1  
- 223 range that's "reserved" except 127 as available, and everything  
that isn't delegated to a RIR or "various registries" as in use.  
Then, I count everything delegated to a registry but not in the  
ftp://.../delegated-* as available, too. (This avoids double counting  
as in the case of 7.0.0.0/8 until recently.) Result:

Total number of IPv4 addresses:

2^32:             4294.97 M
Class D+E:         536.87 M -
Nets 0 and 127:     33.55 M -
RFC 1918:           17.89 M -
                   ---------
Usable:           3706.65 M

Available in global IANA pool:    822.08 M  (49 /8 blocks)

Assigned/allocated by IANA:   2885.68 M  (172 /8 blocks)

   Of which, delegated TO registries:   2181.04 M  (130 /8 blocks)

     Of which, delegated BY registries:   1767.96 M  (105.38 /8 blocks)

Delegated but unused:    413.07 M  (24.62 /8 blocks)

Total available:   1235.16 M  (73.62 /8 blocks)


In other words, what I count is the amount of address space available  
to be given out to ISPs or end-users under the current regime.

Iljitsch