Last Chance Rush -- was "Five Security Flaws in IPv6"

[virendra rode //]

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Hi Carlos,

Carlos Friacas wrote:
> On Fri, 11 May 2007, Geoff Huston wrote:
> 
>> At 01:13 AM 11/05/2007, Nick Hilliard wrote:
>>> Geoff Huston wrote:
>>>> As the amount of remaining addresses space that these models look at
>>>> diminish in size, then the degree of possible variance in the
>>>> modelling exercise also diminishes - i.e. the convergence of these
>>>> predictive models is also a relatively strong signal that this is no
>>>> longer a long range prediction with high levels of potential
>>>> variance, but is now working as a short term prediction with very
>>>> limited potential variance.
>>>
>>> It might be more accurate to say that the upper bounds of the address
>>> pool sizes can be predicted more accurately as time goes by.  Your
>>> model does not take into account a possible stampede near the end.
>>
>>
>> Actually a quadratic model may better equipped to model the
>> characteristics of a last chance rush  than an exponential growth
>> model using least squares best fit curve fitting algorithms, but, yes,
>> its still probably too conservative. So you comment appears to be that
>> even this model is perhaps too conservative. Fair enough. What does
>> that observation imply to a projected IANA pool exhaustion date then?
>>
>>   regards,
>>
>>   Geoff
> 
> Hi,
> 
> My view can be somewhat biased because i'm running dual-stack for some
> years now........... but this "last chance rush" thing doesn't clearly
> show anyone that the _public_ IPv4 Internet's GROWTH is doomed ???
> 
> Yesterday I've once more listenned to the "what can a small/mid-sized
> company gain by going into IPv6?" question. For me the answer is still
> "...a continuously growing Internet and potentially more customers!",
> but this argument isn't really convincing the majority. :-(
> 
> In the end, addressing is still an ISP issue. And if ISPs don't push it,
> they will reach the point where they will have to explain customer B
> that customer A has its public addresses, but customer B will have to
> live only with NAT -- bad luck, the world can be unfair now and then.
- -----------------------
I agree. Do you think this is also because there aren't enough network
engineers technically comfortable within the SP networks to encourage v6
rapid deployment?


regards,
/virendra


> 
> At this point i can easily see that IPv6 is still a drop in the ocean,
> and as IPv4 available blocks are going down the drain, ISPs should
> already be on top of it... :-(
> 
> Flames welcomed.
> 
> Best Regards,
> 
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Carlos Friac,as                                            See:
> Wide Area Network Working Group (WAN)                      www.gigapix.pt
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> www.fccn.pt
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
>       The end is near........ see http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4
>  "Internet is just routes (217118/774), naming (billions) and... people!"
> 
> 
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