Last Chance Rush -- was "Five Security Flaws in IPv6"

[Carlos Friacas]

On Fri, 11 May 2007, Geoff Huston wrote:

> At 01:13 AM 11/05/2007, Nick Hilliard wrote:
>> Geoff Huston wrote:
>>> As the amount of remaining addresses space that these models look at 
>>> diminish in size, then the degree of possible variance in the modelling 
>>> exercise also diminishes - i.e. the convergence of these predictive models 
>>> is also a relatively strong signal that this is no longer a long range 
>>> prediction with high levels of potential variance, but is now working as a 
>>> short term prediction with very limited potential variance.
>> 
>> It might be more accurate to say that the upper bounds of the address pool 
>> sizes can be predicted more accurately as time goes by.  Your model does 
>> not take into account a possible stampede near the end.
>
>
> Actually a quadratic model may better equipped to model the characteristics 
> of a last chance rush  than an exponential growth model using least squares 
> best fit curve fitting algorithms, but, yes, its still probably too 
> conservative. So you comment appears to be that even this model is perhaps 
> too conservative. Fair enough. What does that observation imply to a 
> projected IANA pool exhaustion date then?
>
>   regards,
>
>   Geoff

Hi,

My view can be somewhat biased because i'm running dual-stack for some 
years now........... but this "last chance rush" thing doesn't clearly 
show anyone that the _public_ IPv4 Internet's GROWTH is doomed ???

Yesterday I've once more listenned to the "what can a small/mid-sized 
company gain by going into IPv6?" question. For me the answer is still 
"...a continuously growing Internet and potentially more customers!", but 
this argument isn't really convincing the majority. :-(

In the end, addressing is still an ISP issue. And if ISPs don't push 
it, they will reach the point where they will have to explain customer B 
that customer A has its public addresses, but customer B will have to live 
only with NAT -- bad luck, the world can be unfair now and then.

At this point i can easily see that IPv6 is still a drop in the ocean, 
and as IPv4 available blocks are going down the drain, ISPs should 
already be on top of it... :-(

Flames welcomed.

Best Regards,

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Carlos Friac,as                                            See:
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       The end is near........ see http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4
  "Internet is just routes (217118/774), naming (billions) and... people!"


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