Google IPv6 measurements in Europe appear heading down...

[Kate Lance]

On Thu, Nov 06, 2014 at 04:32:34PM +1100, Geoff Huston wrote:
> Telenor is big in Norway and is now picking up momentum on a deployment:
> http://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/AS2119?c=NO&g=&w=10&x=1
 
Hi Geoff,

https://www.vyncke.org/ipv6status/compare.php?metric=p&countries=be,no shows
that over August 2014, Norway rose from roughly 2% to 4%, while Belgium rose
from 22% to 29%. But that's percentages, not per capita.

Norway's population is roughly 5 million, Belgium's 11 million. So a 2% rise
among 5 million people isn't likely to stimulate a 7% rise in a country with
more than twice the population. 

But looking at the APNIC stats from August, they don't show the coordinated
EU kick - so now I'm wondering if it's an artifact of Google's measurement
technique instead. 

Two months earlier, in mid-June, the Google graphs for most European countries 
show an odd semi-outage, and from then, compared to the APNIC numbers, they
seem to *undercount* till mid-August, when they all rise together to again be
similar to APNIC's.

Certainly it's apples and oranges comparing APNIC and Google stats, but this 
might suggest there wasn't really a rise in IPv6 in mid-August (as measured by 
Google), but more of a correction to a previous undercounting. Interesting.

Regards, Kate


> > On 6 Nov 2014, at 2:23 pm, Kate Lance <kate at ipv6now.com.au> wrote:
> > 
> > Hi Éric,
> > 
> > I'm puzzled, not about the recent decline (and now near-recovery) but at the
> > odd 'kick' in the stats on Aug 17, mainly for Europe. 
> > 
> > Compare Belgium and most of the high-IPv6 EU countries (for clarity I left a
> > couple out like FR and CH, but they have small kicks as well):
> > https://www.vyncke.org/ipv6status/compare.php?metric=p&countries=be,de,lu,ro,cz,no
> > 
> > - with high-IPv6 non-EU (BE left in for comparison):
> > https://www.vyncke.org/ipv6status/compare.php?metric=p&countries=be,us,jp,pe,my
> > The US and Peru show small increments too, but certainly not like the EU countries.
> > 
> > Looking closely, it appears something increased the measurements in Europe a
> > little on 13 Aug, then a lot on 17 Aug.  Erik Taraldsen from Telenor Norway
> > said they'd been rolling out v6 since summer - but that sounds more gradual
> > than a sudden increment in mid-August. Any ideas ...?
> > 
> > Regards,
> > Kate
> > 
> > 
> > On Thu, Oct 23, 2014 at 06:03:42PM +0000, Eric Vyncke (evyncke) wrote:
> >>   With the link, it is probably better… still need some caffein
> >> 
> >>   [1]https://www.vyncke.org/ipv6status/compare.php?metric=p&countries=be,
> >>   de,us,lu
> >> 
> >>   From: Eric Vyncke <[2]evyncke at cisco.com>
> >>   Date: jeudi 23 octobre 2014 09:38
> >>   To: "[3]ipv6-ops at lists.cluenet.de" <[4]ipv6-ops at lists.cluenet.de>
> >>   Subject: Google IPv6 measurements in Europe appear heading down...
> >> 
> >>   For a couple of weeks, it seems that Google IPv6 measurements are
> >>   heading down mainly for Europe. For example, here is a link to a
> >>   presentation of the Google measurements for several European countries
> >>   and USA. There is a clear drop in the last days/weeks for European
> >>   countries but not for USA.
> >>   This includes a big drop for my country (BE) :-O and I have checked
> >>   with all Belgian ISP and they have no explanation as for them 'business
> >>   as usual'. Apnic also does not show such a big drop.
> >>   So, I am guessing either a 'bug' in Google measurements infrastructure
> >>   in Europe or could it be that the IPv6 latency to Google has increased
> >>   a lot so that Happy Eyeball prefers IPv4? Recent measurement of
> >>   dual-stack latency to www.google.com from several Belgian ISP gave 10%
> >>   slower over IPv6.
> >>   Any clue will be welcome
> >>   -éric
> >> 
> >> References
> >> 
> >>   1. https://www.vyncke.org/ipv6status/compare.php?metric=p&countries=be,de,us,lu
> >>   2. mailto:evyncke at cisco.com
> >>   3. mailto:ipv6-ops at lists.cluenet.de
> >>   4. mailto:ipv6-ops at lists.cluenet.de