The day has come

[bmanning at vacation.karoshi.com]

On Mon, Jan 17, 2011 at 05:34:10PM +0100, Guillaume.Leclanche at swisscom.com wrote:
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Tim Chown
> > Sent: Monday, January 17, 2011 2:38 PM
> > >> In any case, nobody knows how the end game will be handled; it could
> > >> be that IANA wants to hand out the last blocks in some symbolic way.
> > >
> > > 	at the opening of Apricot2011 perhaps?
> > 
> > ICANN in March?
> 
> On the contrary, I believe it's pretty clear how the end game will be handled; IANA has to follow the policies first of all, so if I'm correct the flow is :
> - APNIC requests 2 or more additional /8
> - IANA has to allocate 2 /8 because APNIC is entitled to get them (and they've been entitled to for a long time already),
> - IANA has to allocate 1 /8 to each RIR because there are only 5 /8 left,
> - IANA and the RIRs have to reflect the allocation in their resources and everybody knows it from the records.
> Source: http://www.icann.org/en/general/allocation-remaining-ipv4-space.htm. It looks like IANA is not really allowed to delay any of those steps.
> 
> As a consequence, the official announcement should come before the records are updated online, that is in the same day as the allocation is done.
> 
> I imagine the only way to delay the announcement would be APNIC requesting only 1 /8, or not requesting anything at all. And all Asia-Pacific ISPs would kill them.
> 
> Guillaume
> 
> 
> 
> 

	oh the process is pretty well known.  the timing is key.  based on the burn rates,
	you might have expected APNIC to request additional blocks in late november 2010.
	and since there is always a reason to look for good PR, if APNIC delayed asking
	for space so that the run out could coincide wiht a couple of publisized evetns,
	including the annual APNIC co-sponsored conference, I'd wait.  Its a once in a lifetime
	event.  No reaon to waste it on a dead weekend, when there are no cameras around.


	of course there is another explaination.  IPv6 is so compelling that no one cares
	about the dregs of IPv4 space - that demand has dropped for this antique artifact
	and there is no reason to release any more.

	
	Me, I bet on a splashy PR move.

--bill