World IPv6 Day? [included bonus report on brokeness studies]

[Martin Millnert]

Nick,

On Wed, 2011-01-12 at 20:20 +0000, Nick Hilliard wrote:
> The brokenness figure is reasonably well studied, and is around 0.2% +/- 
> 0.1%.  

So you claim... :)


> Check out Google's presentations at RIPE and NANOG for more 
> information on their methodology.

I did, I googled "IPv6 brokenness presentation" and basically came up
with Redpill/Tore's data / presentations, and a few iterations of
Lorenzo/Google presos.  This is not "well-studied" (in terms of distinct
research) in my book, but maybe I apply a too academic weight to the
term. I'm not at all saying that these two groups haven't been studying
it at great length, just that the availability of similar-scope and
detailed presentations of the data is a bit scarce.


I made a little summary of what I found just now for the list:


Reported IPv6 brokenness, 2008 - today:


RIPE 57, Dubai, 26-30 October 2008:

http://www.ripe.net/ripe/meetings/ripe-57/presentations/Colitti-A_strategy_for_IPv6_adoption.Z8ri.pdf , Colitti

 * "1 in 10000 broken users is still too many"
 * no other data given in the presentation

http://www.ripe.net/ripe/meetings/ripe-57/presentations/Colitti-Global_IPv6_statistics_-_Measuring_the_current_state_of_IPv6_for_ordinary_users_.7gzD.pdf , presented by Steinar H. Gunderson (it seems)

 * 0.09% ± 0.03% broken IPv6, where broken defined as "breaks for the
user by adding an AAAA"
 * includes a reference to Kevin Day, March 2008, at 0.086% broken (I'm
unable to locate this reference)
 * "It's not that broken, ~0.09% client loss, ~150ms extra latency,
don't believe the FUD"

NANOG 50, Atlanta, 3-6 October 2010

http://www.nanog.org/meetings/nanog50/presentations/Wednesday/NANOG50.Talk41.colitti-IPv6%20transition%20experiences.pdf , Google, Lorenzo Colitti

 * Internet: 0.082% breakage, down from 0.090% in June 2010.
 * ISP A: 0.058%, going down
 * Whitelisted ISP: 0.014%, improved from 0.03% in part by changing to
returning only one AAAA.
 * "Without OS X, numbers are in four nines territory"

RIPE 61, Rome, 15-19 November 2010

http://ripe61.ripe.net/presentations/162-ripe61.pdf , Redpill Linpro,
presented by Tore Anderson

 * Went from 0.2 - 0.3% brokenness to, "over the last seven days",
0.058% (well before the change mentioned below)
 * Looking at http://www.fud.no/ipv6/ I'm reading 0.003% client loss now
for the current week, but this might be too low due to recently
introduced error handling of broken users, catching them before they
reach the test rig.
  Could Tore comment on this a little perhaps?  The 'Overall client
loss' graph dips well *before* 2010-12-21...  Perhaps brokenness numbers
from the brokenness catcher can be included into the data?



So in summary, this well-studied issue has two current data points, one
at 0.082% and one at max 0.058% (or better). This is far from 0.3%. In
fact, it's even outside 0.2% ±0.1%. :)

And *if* these numbers can be positively improved by content providers
having return 6to4 gateways *very* close, I think that is a point that
can speak for itself in the debate of whether or not content providers
should do that.
  As evident by Lorenzos reported improvement by changing from multiple
returned AAAA:s to a single A, it is apparent that there is still more
work to be done on the content service side of this issue.

Cheers,
-- 
Martin Millnert <martin at millnert.se>